Filenews 8 August 2021 - by Xenia Turki
Extreme long-lasting burnings. Heavy rainfall and flooding and on the other hand prolonged droughts. The ice melts at a very fast pace and entire forest areas disappear from fires that burn for days, if not weeks. Until a few years ago, very few people would have associated these phenomena with climate change. Nowadays, however, there are few doubts that the global climate has been disrupted.
We are beginning to experience more and more the consequences of climate change and especially from global warming. Since 1880, the Earth's average temperature has risen just over 1 degree Celsius. However, two thirds of this increase was recorded from 1975 onwards, by about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade. The future is a nightmare if we do not act immediately and decisively. As Dr. Marios Valiantis, an expert on environment and energy, said in his interview with "Liberal", we must understand that climate change is something that concerns everyone.
The European Union, he pointed out, is moving in the right direction and it
s goals of becoming the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 leave room for optimism. But that is not enough and all countries on the planet need to contribute by putting environmental protection high on their agenda, just as the Paris Climate Agreement provides. What needs to be understood is that we are no longer dealing with extreme weather events, but with situations that are becoming more and more intense, they will occur more and more often if we do not change the wheel.Cyprus, suggested by Marios Valiantis, is one of the countries that will be very much affected by climate change. As all studies show, we should expect even higher temperatures to be recorded in the coming years and less precipitation. The fertile and densely populated coastal areas of our country will also be affected, which will also have direct effects from rising sea levels. These impacts predict a big impact on both the economy and society. Cyprus therefore has no choice but to follow the European Union's environmental recommendations as quickly as possible and start adapting to the new climate data that are being created.
- Extreme weather events have a strong presence all over the world this year. Is this what our life's going to be like from now on?
- Extreme weather events have dominated the news in recent years. Especially this year we have seen flooding and heavy rainfall in Northern Europe and Asia, burning in southern Europe, USA and Canada. You don't have to be a scientist to understand that something's wrong. These extreme weather events should have convinced even the most sceptical that climate change is a reality. Indeed, a recent report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) recorded a 74.5% increase in the number of major natural disasters on the planet in 2000-2019, compared to the previous 20 years. Most of them, he said, were related to climatic conditions, such as storms, floods and droughts. The eight hottest years, meanwhile, have been in the last decade. In Europe, 2020 was the warmest year on record.
The signs of climate change are evident everywhere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its 2015 Climate Change Assessment Report in 2015. This is the most comprehensive scientific analysis of climate change ever carried out, which is the result of the work of hundreds of scientists from all over the world. This report leaves no room for doubt that climate change is a reality. Global greenhouse gas emissions are at their highest levels in 800,000 years and are causing unprecedented changes in the climate system. The report is the scientific proof that there is no longer any doubt that human activities contribute very much to this phenomenon. There is an increase in the temperature of both the atmosphere and the seas, while the acidity of the oceans increases as they absorb ever greater amounts of carbon dioxide. The ice has decreased, while the sea level has risen. Extreme weather events have also increased and affect the lives of thousands of people.
- What is usually said is that we should not confuse the climate with the weather. Is there a clear trend of global warming or do we have random flare-ups?
- The phenomenon of global warming is indisputable. According to the European Commission, 2010-2020 was the warmest decade ever recorded, as the global average temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.1°C in 2019. The year 2016 was recorded as the warmest in modern history since record-keeping began in the late 19th century, and, as everything shows, 2021 will probably surpass it. There are many examples. In 2015, India was hit by a heat wave that has left about 1,500 people dead in the space of seven days. This is one of the deadliest years in the history of the country. In 2015 again, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Service reported that in November 2014 the Earth's global temperature was the 13th highest on record at 0.81°C above the 20th century average. November 2015 had record heat in Austria and Switzerland, while it was the third warmest in Denmark and the fifth warmest in the UK. Therefore, we see that these are not random flare-ups, but that year after year the average global temperature is constantly increasing.
- Can we limit global warming to 1.5°C? Are climate scenarios in place that say this goal is almost unattainable?
-Taking into account the seriousness of the situation, the European Union took the lead in the negotiations on the Paris Climate Conference (COP21) in November 2015 in Paris. The result of this conference was the Paris Agreement on climate change, which laid a solid foundation for the transition to a low-carbon society. It is also an action plan agreed by governments with a long-term objective of keeping the increase in average global temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and continuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. According to experts, it is always estimated that the limit of 1.5°C is likely to be reached between 2030 and early 2050, always based on a long-term plan to transform economic growth so that it is less dependent on the intensive use of fossil fuels. The message is clear: The margins have narrowed. The transition to a low-carbon economy is possible and must be done immediately.
-What actions, in your opinion, will lead Cyprus to build a climate-resilient future?
-The concept of 'adaptation' to climate change is the appropriate action and measures to adapt to negative impacts. Adaptation can include both national and regional strategies, as it concerns both natural and human systems. The adoption of a strategy for adaptation measures presupposes above all an assessment of the impact of climate change on the economic, environmental and social sectors. Cyprus as an EU Member State has developed the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change in April 2017, which has highlighted that water resources, soils, coastal zones, biodiversity, forests, agriculture and fisheries, tourism, energy, infrastructure and public health are the areas that will be affected by climate change in Cyprus.
Therefore, the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change includes appropriate adaptation measures aimed at enhancing the country's resilience and adaptability and aimed at effectively preventing and addressing the negative effects of climate change. Adaptation to climate change is a continuous and long-term process that forces a frequent reassessment of the measures in place and included in the National Strategy to reassess their effectiveness and adopt necessary corrective actions.
-How will climate change affect Cyprus? How will the situation in our country be shaped in two to three decades? Which areas are most vulnerable?
-International studies and research show that in the Mediterranean and Middle East region there will be a significant further reduction in annual rainfall, which will lead to severe water scarcity as well as desertification of the region. The projected increase in the average annual temperature in the region is greater than the global average, while phenomena of extremely high temperatures will occur more frequently and with a longer duration during the summer months. These climatic conditions will have a more significant impact on fertile and densely populated coastal and low-lying areas, which will also have direct effects from rising sea levels.
In Cyprus we are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change: extreme weather events (fires, floods, heats), an increase in average temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Climate forecasts that are expected to prevail in the future also predict a large economic impact on society as a whole. According to data from the Meteorological Service, over the last 100 years there have been variations in the climate in Cyprus. Rainfall during the 20th century is on a downward trend, with an average rate of reduction of 1 mm per year, and the temperature is on an upward trend, at an average rate of 0.01°C per year.
In addition, relevant climate change impact assessment research, prepared using climate models, has shown that significant climate change is expected in the region, with significantly drier and warmer conditions. In particular, for the period 2021-2050 it is estimated that the increase in the annual maximum temperature will reach 1.3-1.9°C and for the period 2071-2100 an even greater increase of between 3.0-4.2°C is expected. In the period 2021-2050 we will have 34 more days of high heat than usual, ranging beyond 35 degrees Celsius, and in the period 2071-2100 60 more days.
The EU on the right track to meet the challenges
-What measures should we take to stop the effects of climate change but also to avoid the worst-case scenario?
- The European Union, I must say, is on the right track. To address the challenges of climate change and environmental degradation, but also to achieve its goal of being climate neutral in 2050, the EU has developed a new strategy that will transform it into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy with zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, economic growth will be decoupled from the use of resources. Also, through the Green Agreement, it will provide financial support and technical assistance to those most affected by the transition to the green economy, in this way committing the so-called Fair Transition Mechanism. This action will contribute to mobilising at least EUR 100 billion for the period 2021-2027 in the worst affected areas. Equally important is the 2030 climate plan aimed at further reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and the new EU strategy for adapting to climate change, to make Europe a climate-resilient society by 2050.
- We see that some countries, especially the European Union, are being thrown into battle by all means. Other countries are completely indifferent. Can the planet be saved in this way? What is the point if the EU becomes green and India continues to pollute repeatedly?
-The Paris Agreement on climate change is considered historic for the goals it has set. Then-UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the agreement would shape the lives of future generations. It is therefore clear that in order to meet this international challenge, in order to win the battle of the century against climate change, it is necessary to mobilise joint efforts to mitigate global climate change, even if the ways of dealing with them differ between EU Member States and other countries.
All regions of the Earth are affected
-Which countries and how will they be most affected by climate change?
- Climate change knows no borders. It affects all regions of the world. Ice in the polar regions is melting and sea levels are rising in countries thousands of kilometres away. Some areas are most often affected by extreme weather events and rainfall, while others are affected by high-intensity heat and droughts. On our continent, the countries of southern and central Europe are increasingly affected by heat waves, forest fires and droughts. In the Mediterranean countries, water scarcity will increase continuously, increasing the risks of drought and uncontrolled fires. As we have seen in recent days, Northern Europe is receiving huge amounts of rainfall and flooding will become commonplace. From climate change, many poor developing countries are expected to be most affected. Countries with widespread poverty and countries with ineffective governments will face serious risks from climate change.
In fact, most of them are not equipped at all to protect themselves against environmental threats. Regions with the lowest level of economic development are able to feel the effects to the greatest extent, partly only because of their geographical location, but more on the basis of socio-economic and governance factors. Many developing countries are also uniquely vulnerable because their livelihoods depend on natural resources. If these natural resources are affected by climate change, their ability to feed their families and live is significantly affected.
- What are the geopolitical implications of global warming?
-Climate change and subsequent natural disasters have become common drivers of migration, which will deteriorate further as the impact of climate change on the environment intensifies. It is estimated that climate change will have a negative impact on the exercise of the fundamental rights of migrants as most of them are expected to come from rural areas. This is because their livelihood often depends on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, or on further environmental factors, which are not directly related to climate change, but to man-made environmental changes, such as soil degradation or marine and coastal ecosystems, land and water grabbing, as well as environmental disasters and pollution caused by wars. All these changes also act as risk multipliers and are drivers of migration, particularly for vulnerable populations that are heavily dependent on agriculture and local natural resources.
