Filenews 31 August 2021
Reduction of the risk of hospitalization or death from the coronavirus by 70-79% promises the antibodies that have already been released or are expected to be on the market soon, according to the data available to the pharmaceutical manufacturers at their disposal, based on the clinical studies they have conducted so far.
The data between the antibodies were compared by analysts, predicting the developments in the market that are created depending on the effectiveness of each formulation.
The latest antibody funded by the American institute of health NIAID comes from Brii Biosciences from Hong Kong. According to the latest Activ-2 study, it achieved a 78% reduction in the risk of hospitalization and death with the combination of antibodies BRII-196/BRII-198, without serious side effects, while there was no death. The drug will follow the path of approval for its placing on the market. According to the company's data, an in vitro study showed efficacy in variants of concern, including the Delta variant, although the evaluation of the above data is awaited. It has already started a phase 2 trial in China, while the company has already entered into supply agreements in the US.
During the second half of the year, clinical study data for another combination of antibodies are also expected, this time from AstraZeneca, which will be administered intramuscularly. The initial data were not particularly encouraging, as about 1,100 unvaccinated and virus-negative participants had a reduced risk of developing symptomatic disease by just 33%. However, in a newer and larger study (about 5,200 people participated) the results showed a 77% reduction in the risk of symptomatic disease, although more than 75% of the participants had underlying diseases. The prevention provided also concerns the Delta variant.
Regarding the double combination of Lilly with the antibodies bamlanivimab and etesevimab, the company expects the discontinuation of the combination to be lifted, as preclinical data show efficacy against the Delta variant, although the in vitro data that led to the interruption of their marketing, showed that they are not effective against the beta and gamma variants. Despite the favourable – eventually – development, expectations declined, with the group expecting sales of 1 to 1.1 billion in 2021. Dol. from 1-1.5 billion. dollars that were originally calculated for covid-19 antibodies.
Regeneron's combination with casirivimab and imdevimab antibodies showed no reduced efficacy in variants of concern, resulting in a state contract with the US of 2.6 billion. Dol.
Meanwhile, as early as May, Vir's sotrovimab antibody, which proceeded in collaboration with Glaxosmithkline, acquired an emergency use license. For this particular use, analysts' estimates are conflicting as some are looking forward to a multi-billion chance. while others are wary.
Leerink analysts estimate that the slowdown in the third quarter leading to reduced revenues of $34 million is not enough in the U.S. after the stockpile of antibodies comes to an end for this year, it will lead to a slight rise in the last quarter of the year, reaching a total sales of antibodies for the U.S. at 3 billion dollars for 2021. The rise in the last quarter is attributed to a possible increase in cases in the winter season.
