Filenews 18 April 2021 - by Kostas Venizelos
To "fit" the sovereign equality, which the occupying Turkey insists on, into a 'decentralised federation', is the point, which may be answered at the informal Five-Party Conference on 27-29 April in Geneva.
While it is clear that what is being sought from the Turkish side is not a federation, however, according to the British formula, the extensive explanation from the Greek Cypriot side of its approach to a decentralised/loose federation can facilitate and bridge differences. It should be noted in this regard that a document has been prepared at the technocratic level, which will be presented, when an issue arises in the debate, by the President of the Republic in the Pentameri.
The danger is that discussions on the issues of competences/powers will focus, while in the minds of the Turks there is also the international presence of the Länder. All they care about is the continued participation of Cyprus in the EU, so that they have a role and a reason. At the same time, if the powers of the Länder are extended to international relations, they will be closer to what is being sought from a Turkish point of view, to sovereign equality.
It is clear from both the British and UN Secretariat circles that the key may lie in how relaxed the resulting formation will be, and they believe that if the decentralised debate is opened, a "window" may be found to meet the Turkish demand.
According to information from officials discussing the Cyprus issue with the Turkish side, Ankara will not abandon its position of sovereign equality and will insist on a two-state solution. It's clear they're not bluffing with what's public. At the same time, they suggest that it is not out of the question that Turkey will make 'gestures of goodwill'. What Turkey can back off is on the subject of nomenclature. It invests in the "constructive ambiguity", sometimes enlisted in Cyprus, to "sell" the wrapper of its own aspirations.
At the Geneva Pentamer, the good scenario is to find a way to continue the debate onwards, without specifying a timetable. Already, according to relevant information, a backdrop is being set up for discussions at the technocratic level. These discussions will lead to a new Conference. The United Nations is clearly and ready to facilitate bridging differences. In this case, if this is the case, the UN team may be strengthened, as with Mrs Lut's occasionally short visits, this project will not succeed. The question, of course, is whether the practice of bridging proposals will be accepted.
The other scenario, which is not the prevailing one, is for the discussions in the informal Pentamer to collapse and for the Secretary-General not to continue the efforts. It will be his third major attempt, which will fail. This means that it will have to inform the Security Council and table the terms of service. This scenario, although it serves occupying Turkey over time, at this stage, because of the Euro-Turkish, does not favour it. It is clear, however, that it will remain on the table as a scenario, which will then be considered.
The point is not to get the Greek side carried away with what Ankara is seeking. To discuss only the sharing of powers and to leave matters of substance, such as security, on the sidelines. So far, however, it seems Ankara has been able to set the agenda. He argues that Greek Cypriots are not ready to share anything, wanting to prepare the ground and turn the pressure on Nicosia.
So much will be judged by the tactics that will be followed by those involved.
Started the MOEs
Moves to promote confidence-building measures ahead of the informal Five-Party Conference on Cyprus are being carried out by the United Nations. Un special representative Elizabeth Spehar had teleconferences with negotiators Andreas Mavrogiannis and Ergiun Olgiun. In addition to the agreement reached on roadblocks, the opening of which is subject to the epidemiological picture, the United Nations has also raised a number of other issues for debate through the technical committees. One suggestion is the issue of crime and the other is the issue of immigration. Now, how bi-community the issue of immigration can be considered is another big chapter.
Tactical moves will be judged in the Pentamer and will determine the next steps. The United Nations will try to save the game and avoid collapse from the first step, i.e. from the informal meeting. That is why there will be continuity, with the UN undertaking to bridge the differences, if and when a debate is launched in this direction.
In the meantime, the United Nations has begun discussing confidence-building measures, predicting that this pillar will be part of the next day of the informal Pentamer. Un special representative Elizabeth Spehar had teleconferences with negotiators Andreas Mavrogiannis and Ergiun Olgiun. In addition to the agreement reached on roadblocks, the opening of which is subject to the epidemiological picture, the United Nations has raised the issue of crime and immigration. Issues, all of which concern bi-social matters.
From what we saw last Thursday, in the public debate between the foreign ministers, Greece and Turkey, in Ankara, it is clear that it is difficult to reach an agreement with the occupying power and much more to implement what has been agreed. Ankara wanted to use the Trees visit to send messages to the US and the EU that it is "conciliatory" and is taking initiatives to get along with Greece. In the end, the invitation to Mr. Dendias from Tsavousoglou and the inclusion of the main one in the programme of a meeting with Erdogan, showed Ankara's intentions. On the substance, Turkish officials presented at the meeting with Nikos Dendias, a long list of issues to accuse Greece of being responsible for everything. In the end, the whole effort worked as a boomerang for the Turks as they were taken aback by the attitude of the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Ankara continues to press Cairo to re-strengthen its relations, with the ultimate goal of breaking co-operation with Nicosia and Athens. As we are informed, occupying Turkey is trying to create incentives in Egypt while it has made some "good will" moves. Among the moves was to stop broadcasting from Turkish territory television and radio broadcasts directed against the al-Sisi regime. The telephone communication between the foreign ministers of Turkey and Egypt, at the initiative of Tsavousoglu, was thought to have broken the "ice", but it seems to be too early to talk about a re-heating of relations. Ankara also insists on convening the Eastern Mediterranean Conference, with the aim of breaking the tripartite partnerships established by Cyprus and Greece. Although this issue is being kept in the spotlight by Ankara, it does not currently find suitable ground.
However, today Sunday the Greek Foreign Minister, Nikos Dendias ( will leave Cyprus where he is for the quadrimer with Israel and the United Arab Emirates). It should be noted that a few days ago the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus and Egypt had telephone contact.
