Filenews 4 April 2021 - by Frixos Dalitis
The undecided remain the dominant trend within the electorate, despite the fact that the polls for the new Parliament will be set up next May.
At the same time, the tendency to abstain in conjunction with the intention to invalid/white is the first choice for voters. At the same time, it is clear that the first place remains in the DISY, although the gap with the ACPL is closing, while a great battle is raging for the fourth place claimed by four parties: the EDEC, the Ecologists, the Independents and the ELAM, with the latter having a slight lead over the others.
These findings, like many others, are reflected in the telephone survey carried out between 21-30 March by CMRC-Cypronetwork Ltd, on behalf of "F", in which 1000 people over the age of 18 took part from the free territory of the Republic of Cyprus. The survey's findings show, among other things, that while abstention is expected to remain at the levels of the 2016 parliamentary elections, there is a decline or at best stagnation in some of the three major parties and momentum in the smaller parties and new formats.
Based on the results of the survey, it appears that at least seven parties secure parliamentary representation, on the basis of the electoral measure for entry into parliament. Of particular interest are the conclusions of the survey both in relation to the specified vote and in relation to the weighted vote, but also the rallies and leaks of the parties one month before the opening of the ballot box. Elements which are key both for the parties themselves in the remaining time until the parliamentary elections, as well as reading the findings of the survey.
According to the survey, as far as the intention to vote without weighting is concerned, if we had a parliamentary vote next Sunday, the DISY would take first place with 16.02%, the ACPL 13.78%, the DIKO 8%. From then on, there is a big battle for fourth place with four parties recording a percentage very close to each other, indicating that the result is likely to be judged marginally. Specifically, the EDEC-Social Alliance receives 3.67%, the Ecologists- Citizens' Cooperation 4.01%, the EDAM 4.53% and the Independent Movement 4.10%. Also very close is the Democratic Party with 2.38%, while Solidarity receives 1.57%, the Cyprus Animal Party 1.14%, while 1.96% said they would vote for another party.
On the basis of the specified vote, i.e. by subtracting respondents to the survey who say they will not go to vote or intend to vote for white or invalid, DISY occupies first place with 20.70% while ACPL follows with 17.79% and DIKO with 10.35% EDEC 4.74%, Ecologists with 5.17%, ELAM 5.85%, Solidarity 2.03%, DEPA 3.08% , the Independents 5.30%, the Animal Party 1.48% and another 2.53%.
Estimation of the result
Based on the results of the specific time period in the poll, a preliminary assessment of the result is made on the basis of which the possibility of reversals is left open. First for first place if the DISY secures the lowest percentage of the estimate, the ACPL may pass it marginally. Second for the fourth place claimed by four formations with the ELAM prevailing. From then on, the assessment leaves open the possibility that not only seven but nine formations will be represented in the House. In particular, the breakdown based on the estimate is:
>>DISY 25 – 28%
>>ACPL 22.5 – 25.5%
>>DIKO 13.0 – 15%
>>K.S.EDEK - SOCIAL AGREEMENT 5.0 – 7.0%
>>ALLEGY 2.0 – 4.0%
>>ECOLOGY MOVE - POLICY COOPERATION 5.0 – 7.0%
>>E.LA.M 5.5 – 7.5%
>>DIPA - DIM COOPERATION POWER 2.0 - 4.0%
>>INDEPENDENT MOVEMENT – KEKK 5.0 – 7.0%
>>CYPRUS ANIMALS 1.0 – 3.0%
As noted in the estimate, a decrease in DISY rates is expected, a slight decrease or retention of ACPL rates based on the 2016 election results. Rather stability in the percentages of DIKO and EDEC – Social Alliance. An increase is expected to be presented by the Movement of Ecologists – Citizens' Cooperation and the ELAM. The New Parliament appears to be entering the Movement of Independents – KEKK with percentages close to three other parties and it is not excluded that Solidarity and DEPA are represented.
The big bet and the outcome of the final results will judge the percentages they will manage if they manage to regain the major parties from leaks to smaller parties and movements and the undecideds with the aim of rallying high and increasing their percentages. The bet for the small parties will be to resist and contain input from the major parties.
They give and take
With regard to the rallies recorded by the parties in the final stretch of their elections, the ACPL takes the lead, reaching 79%, followed by the ELAM with 68%. The concentration of the other parties amounts to 62% for the DISY, 65% for the DIKO, 63% for the EDEC while the rally of the Ecologists amounts to 58%.
>>The DISY, according to the findings of the survey, shows many outflows mainly to ELAM, DYPA and The Independent Movement. Specifically to ELAM it records outflows of 4%, while 6% of its voters say it will cast invalid/white. Also, 13% say they have not yet decided or do not know or do not respond. At the same time, however, the DISY seems to be receiving a significant 13% of the vote from Solidarity. Votes that could also be interpreted as repatriated. 3% also receives from the ELAM, while it does not seem to receive votes from the ACPL and the Ecologists.
>>The ACPL has many small outputs. with the most important one to the Independent Movement. 6% said they would throw invalid or white, while 6% said they were undecided. As far as inputs are concerned, the ACPL seems to receive the largest proportion of people who abstained in previous parliamentary elections. Votes, which in this case could also be interpreted as repatriated. A significant percentage of 3% also receives from people who voted for Ecologists in the previous elections, while it does not seem to receive any votes from the DIKO.
>>DIKO records outputs mainly to DYPA and amounts to 10%. Outflows of much smaller records to DISY, Ecologists, ELAM and Independents, while 8% said they would abstain or throw invalid/white. But it receives 8% from Solidarity, 4% from Ecologists, while it does not get any votes from the ACPL.
>>The EDEC has the largest outflow of voters to the Ecologists with 7%, while the same percentage states that it will not vote or cast invalid/white. Outputs also records to DIKO, Ecologists and Movement of Independents. Most of the inflows it records come from the Citizens' Alliance of 14%, while it receives no votes from ELAM and Ecologists.
Negative sign for President and party leaders
Public opinion rings a bell for all politicians at the forefront of the Cypriot political scene. Negative is the sign given to them by citizens with their percentages at a positive valuation ranging between 30 and 16% while negative votes range between 44% and 77%. The only ones who manage to garner more positive than negative votes are the Speaker of the House Adamos Adamou with 43% and the president of the Movement of Ecologists Charalambos Theopetou with one unit above, 44%. The negative votes for the former are 21%, the lowest negative percentage given to a political person in this survey. The negative votes for H. Theopetou are very close to the positive ones he receives, namely 40%. We must not miss the fact that Mr Adamou and Mr Theopetou are not one of the politicians who are "dirty" with the performance of their duties, nor do they have strong attitudes that provoke reactions. For both a significant percentage of respondents is not placed.
Remarkable is the fact that President Nicos Anastasiades, despite coming under fire everywhere for both corruption, the Cyprus issue, pandemic management and the economy as well as harsh criticism from all parties except the Democratic Alarm, and while he is in the midst of disparaging reports on social media, gathers negative votes below party leaders of the central political scene , such as the Secretary-General of the ACPL, the President of the European Parliament, the President of the EDEC. To these is added the president of the Citizens' Alliance Giorgos Lilikas with 77% negative votes but also the president of the Democratic Party Marios Karoyan with 68% negative votes. The President of the Republic has twice as many negative votes as he has. While a not at all inconsumable percentage is not placed against it either negatively or positively. The negative votes for N. Anastasiades are 55% and the positive votes are limited to 21%.
The president of the Citizens' Alliance Giorgos Lilikas, although he has not been on the main political scene lately, nor has he made any interventions that have provoked public opinion, he is garnering 77% negative votes and 16% positive ones, remaining in the low room leaving behind (in terms of positive valuation) only Mario Karoyan.
Second in negative votes is ACPL Secretary-General Andros Kyprianou with 72% against 23% of positive votes. He is followed by his main opponent, DISY President Averof Neophytou with 70% negative votes and 24% positive votes at a time when his party is under pressure from all other forces and public opinion on government management while as a ruling political force it has a political cost.
DIKO President Nikolas Papadopoulos is third in line, with 34% positive votes, behind H. Theopetou and Ad. Adamou. It records almost twice as many negative votes. 60%. It does not leave citizens indifferent since the proportion of those who did not reply is neither – nor is it too low.
His main opponent, Marios Karoyan, has a high percentage of negative votes, 68% and a negative record in positive votes of 10% the lowest of all politicians.
EDEC President Marinos Sizopoulos garners 67% negative votes and 20% positive votes.
Eleni Theocharous is fourth in line in terms of positive valuation with 30% versus 50% of negative votes.
The president of ELAM Christos Christos gathers 57% negative votes and 20% positive.
Independent MP Anna Theologos, who is considered the leader of the Independent Movement and the Hunters' Partnership, has 44% negative votes and 25% positive votes.
