Filenews 2 January 2021 - by Petros Theoharidis
These are not thriller, horror or science fiction film scenarios, but the 22 possible scenarios with which Cyprus can be left without electricity, included in a special study by the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority that was recently published and for which the European Commission was also informed.
The study, which has also been carried out on the basis of our European obligations, aims, on the one hand, to determine all possible scenarios of developments and situations that may lead Cyprus to an electrical blackout and at the same time to study the actions to be taken in each case. From cyberattacks, to pandemics or waves of very high temperatures in summers, fires, earthquakes, etc. have been put under the microscope of the study.
The need for such a study, including even extremely extreme scenarios, especially in relation to Cyprus, cannot be surprising, given the situations that have developed since the explosion in Marie. Cyprus still has a peculiarity, that it is an isolated electrical system and everything depends on the domestic production of electricity, which will change in the interests of the energy security of Cyprus, with the operation of the undersea electrical pipelines EuroAsia Interconnector and EuroAfrica Interconnector.
The currency has another side, since the fact that Cyprus is not connected to other networks means that other countries will not be affected by any collapse of our own electricity system.
On the basis of the 22 electrical blackout scenarios, in 2021 and 2022 all those involved and affected will work out detailed preparedness plans for prevention and response to any cause of disaster in order to mitigate and minimise the disruptions caused.
It is perhaps surprising that for Cyprus, the number one crisis scenario in Cyprus' electrical system concerns the possibility of cyber attacks, which can reportedly occur "at any time and does not depend either on the season or on the electrical charge". It can start with cyberattacks on crisis-affected energy infrastructures, such as those of the transmission system operator, the electrical network control centre, EAC's IT and data storage systems, RES parks or even the Vasilikos Cement Factory.
Such an attack could cause deliberate power outages, interference with, transformers, power stations, etc. which will lead to possible overload on the remaining lines and transformers and immediate loss of electricity supply. Due to the fact that the electricity system of Cyprus is small it could even lead to a total blackout.
Scenarios include a prediction of a possible physical attack on energy infrastructure. It could also happen at any time, without being related to the time or the electricity generation and transmission data themselves. For example, there could be an attack on electrical cables, transformers, substations, power stations or data centres, with an extensive blackout, even a total, in the event of the destruction of power plants or central substations and transformers.
It is even considered the scenario key executives of production, network management etc. are put for any reason out of battle or threatened to proceed to destabilizing actions that will create serious problems in the electricity system of Cyprus. Under the microscope, even scenarios are set for "attack from within", which includes "sabotage by employees or subcontractors through physical interference or abuse of systems".
It is not necessary to deliberate some actions that lead to blackouts or system instability, but they may also be due to human errors, especially maintenance procedures, etc., so this scenario is also being considered separately.
We're threatened by natural disasters and burnings.
Floods and natural disasters during the winter season are also a threat to the electricity system of Cyprus, which is why such a scenario is under the microscope, especially in relation to rapid rainfall that can cause flooding in basic infrastructure of the electricity grid, such as the central substations. In this scenario, the security of technical access to important infrastructure within these conditions will also be considered. A separate scenario is multiple simultaneous failures in different parts of the electrical system due to bad weather.
In the winter season there are still two risks, one concerns strong winds, lightning and storms that can cause prolonged damage and the second, in the event of prolonged unprecedented cold, electricity demand exceeds production capacity.
The scenario of a shortage of fossil fuels is also being examined due to prolonged external events (e.g. political, economic, war crises) leading to a disturbance in international oil markets or shipping routes, etc., which would initially lead to electricity cuts for some hours or regions and then to a nationwide problem.
Scenarios of serious technical failures, extreme weather conditions, high or low load due to fire or explosion in a basic production infrastructure or substation, etc. shall also be taken into account.
There is also the scenario of serious problems leading to partial or total blackouts and due to very high prolonged temperatures leading to overload or other damage.
More 'normal' scenarios are also on the table, such as a general strike in the areas of electricity or riots, exclusions or other mass social unrest (regardless of motive), which could also lead to serious problems. Errors in the forecasts for RES production, which are very likely due to sunshine and clouds or due to wind, in times of particularly high demand, can also lead to problems.
Earthquake, pestilding and coronavirus
A separate scenario under consideration is that of the pandemic, on the occasion of Covid-19 and the impact on the electrical safety of Cyprus. Infections could occur in control centres, power stations, etc. resulting in insufficient staff. The tension leads to more frequent and serious errors, the response time to damage increases and the problems will be chained.
Also a strong earthquake could lead to blackouts say the scenarios of experts since it could damage transportation infrastructure and power plants and affect operational control centres.
Finally, forest fires can cause serious damage to the network, with the 66kV transmission line via Troodos particularly exposed, which, as noted, is particularly at risk.
