Filenews 25 January 2021 - Marilena Panagi
We must not be intimidated, we must be kept alert by the mutations of the coronavirus, stresses professor Konstantinos Tsioutis in "F", stressing that "the key" in the case of "crown virus" and "pandemic" in general was and is, regardless of the communicability of the various strains of the virus, primarily the individual responsibility and the application of personal protection measures, with the most important observance of the rule of "distancing" in our personal contacts.
On the occasion of the debate that took place last week, both at World Health Organisation level and at EU level, since the mutations presented by the coronavirus and in particular the fact that the new strain of the virus is now found on a large scale throughout Europe, the professor explains the reasons why the international community expresses strong concerns about the continuity of , while pushing for an increase in vaccinations.
It points out that the spread of the new most contagious strain of coronavirus, originally detected in the United Kingdom, should also be taken for granted in Cyprus since it has already been detected in Cypriot society and explains that the risk is not behind the mutation itself since it does not appear to increase the risk of serious disease and death, but behind the increased transmission among humans which will inevitably lead to higher rates of patients; of course deaths.
"From genetic descriptions of the virus strain in the UK, it is found that this is not just mutated but has such significant mutations that it makes it quite different from the previous one that was circulating," Mr Tsiotis said, speaking to "F", adding that "the importance of these mutations is that they cause easier and therefore more rapid transmission of the virus, from person to person. In other words, the first laboratory research carried out showed that these mutations are indeed found in parts of the virus that make it attach to human cells more easily."
In the analysis of the data, 'from an epidemiological point of view, if this is the case, it means that the mutant strain raises all epidemiological indicators'. In particular, 'it is estimated that this strain has a higher reproduction number (Rt) of 0,4-0,7'. For example, 'if we know that the replication number of the virus is around 3, then with this strain the replication number will become about 3.5'. As a number it does not seem important, in itself, "so let's translate it into incidents that will be recorded according to the number of reproductions. When 1,000 people get sick, with a strain that has a reproduction number of 3, these individuals will transmit on average to another 3,000 people. In a second transmission cycle, 3,000 people will transmit to an additional 9,000 people (3,000x3)".
In contrast, "if the virus has a replication number of 3.5, the 1,000 original individuals will transmit to 3,500 people. In a second transmission cycle, these 3,500 people will transmit to approximately 12,000 additional people (3,500x3.5)".
But this will happen 'if the appropriate measures are not observed'. If the measures are complied with, for example 'masks outdoors and indoors, social distancing, teleworking, prohibition of mass gatherings, then for the sake of the hypothetical example the number of reproductions will be reduced by 2 and will fall from 3 to 1 and, respectively, if the initial reproduction number was 3.5 it would fall to 1.5'.
Regarding the characteristics of the new strain of coronavirus, Mr Tsiotis said that "at first sight it is not clinically relevant, as it does not appear that people affected by this strain develop more serious symptoms". However, 'it is suspected that it is transmitted to children with the same ease as it is transmitted to adults and this is a significant difference from the known strain of the virus, which is considered, by at least most scientific reports, to be less transmitted among younger children'. At the same time, "although it does not appear to cause more serious symptoms, because it affects a larger number of people in a shorter period of time, it significantly increases the chances of an increase in the number of people who will develop severe symptoms and will need hospitalization".
As far as Cyprus is concerned, "the mutant strain of the United Kingdom was found in 12 samples from 19 people who arrived in Cyprus at the beginning of December, as well as in 1 sample from another 24 positive individuals who did not have a travel history. On this basis, it must therefore be assumed that this strain is located in Cyprus and is circulating".
It is not the first, nor the only mutation, but it seems to prevail
In recent months, three strains with similar mutations have been identified. One mutation was detected in Japan in travellers from Brazil, the other mutation was found in the UK and the third in South Africa. The UK mutant strain has already been detected in more than 50 countries, including Cyprus. For the South African strain there are some announcements that it causes more serious symptoms, but this is based on only a few incidents and cannot be established with certainty. "Thousands of mutations have been recorded in this virus since the beginning of the pandemic, but few of them have so far been essential." Characteristic is the mutation "D614G", which is the mutation that has now prevailed in the pandemic. It had no substantial contribution to the epidemiology and clinical picture of the virus. On the contrary, however, newly mutated strains in the United Kingdom are of epidemiological importance, as they are more easily transmitted." At present, these mutations do not appear to affect vaccinations. "Pfizer and Moderna have already announced that their vaccine remains active against this strain, while detailed laboratory investigations are being carried out to demonstrate the exact efficacy of the vaccine." According to the professor, "even if some of the "targets" of vaccines on the virus are resistant to the action of vaccines, some other "targets" will remain sensitive to vaccines". Even in the worst case, "companies have announced that they can modify their vaccines in a short period of time".
