Filenews 31 December 2020
Does Europe want its German, as well? Or can he accomplish the same things without his help or, much more, his deal?
The planned change of baton to the EU presidency, which on 1 January 2021 passes from Germany to Portugal for the next six months (until 30 June, when Slovenia receives it), gives the opportunity for a 'fund'. On the one hand, to assess, on which fronts Angela Merkel has succeeded and on which she has failed, and what are the great outstanding issues she "inherits" to her successor.
And, on the other hand, to set the bar where it should be with regard to Antonio Costa, who has a peculiarity: Although he represents a much smaller and weaker country in the European South, and is also part of a rival political camp by the German chancellor, Costa is one of the EU's most stable political leaders. He is the leader of the most left-wing coalition that can be found today in the ranks of the "27", as he enjoys the support of the Portuguese KK, the Left Bloc, the Greens and other groups.
What Merkel achieved
So where can we assume that Merkel has achieved and vindicated the expectations that Germany's partners had invested in her?
Budget-Recovery Fund
If Berlin did not put all its weight behind the implementation of the decision taken at last July's dramatic summit, having previously taken care to secure the assent of the French, it is very likely that in 2021 it would have entered without having cleared the landscape in the EU's finances and without the '27' knowing when, exactly how much and under what conditions they would be able to expect from the two 'buttons'. : Regular, which is the seven-year budget for 2021-'27 and amounts to just under 1.1 trillion ecus. Eur 750 billion and the emergency fund, which is the Recovery Fund of EUR 750 billion. There have certainly been many concessions, but the result is that the case is now progressing and the funds will gradually start to be disbursed.
Brexit
Merkel had made it clear from the outset, expressing the will of Germany's business world, that she would do everything in her power to reach an agreement with London, considering that the costs and risks of a "naughty" Brexit are too great. So, even at a time when the "tough" Macron seemed determined to blow it all up, the chancellor made sure to give the negotiation another chance – making sure, at the same time, to keep Boris Johnson in the game, even if she never... liked.
Agreement with China
Literally at five pm, on Thursday 30 January, the signatures came in a major investment agreement between the European Union and China, closing a multi-year negotiation that was often threatened with a shipwreck. However, the very large interests of German companies (such as Volkswagen) in the vast Chinese market have imposed Merkel's persistence on this front, rather than american reactions, bringing results. Of course, this agreement is far from creating a free trade area, but it is an important step.
'Green' development
The highly ambitious targets adopted by the EU during the German presidency – reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse gases" by at least 55% by 2030 and achieving "climate neutrality" by 2055 at the latest – are undoubtedly a success for Merkel. A success that is not only due to its sensitivity to climate change, but also to Germany's lead in turning to the 'green economy', a model it now imposes across the EU.
And the opposite?
But if, on the four fronts above, the Chancellor has done well and leaves a positive sign, what is the opposite? The truth is, they're neither little nor less important.
Second wave of pandemic
During the first wave of the pandemic, last spring, most countries wanted, quite simply, to be like Germany. But now things seem to have changed – and that is something Merkel is heavily charged with with her manipulations. The negative record in deaths (over 1,000) and warnings that the country's ICU is close to their limits certainly burden the picture. The same is true of the "arrhythmias" that continue at European level – such as with the approvals and distribution of vaccines, but also the coordination of lockdowns – for which the German Chancellor, as President-in-Office, also has a significant share of the responsibility.
Refugee
The absence of a common European policy to manage the major issues of refugee and migration continued over the past six months. Disagreements within the "27" seem unending, while neither the "carrot" nor the "whip" has taken place against the objectors. Even the threat of sanctions or even fines if EU decisions are not implemented fell into limbo – as the veto threat from Poland and Hungary made Merkel reconsider. Thus, the burden continues to fall mainly on the backs of 'first host' countries such as Greece and Italy.
Relations with Turkey
Mevlut Cavusoglu's claim that his government's policy of creating a fait accompli in the region in Turkey's interests is largely due to Merkel's tolerance - if not condescension - towards Ankara's stance over the past six months. Apparently considering that her country (secondly the EU) had much more to lose than to gain from a rupture, the chancellor prevented any attempt to impose sanctions, while making sure to co-operate with Erdogan even when he insulted and challenged Macron, even threatening to strike French warships off the coast of Libya. German companies have invested large sums in Turkey, which is also a very good customer of Germany (and in equipment) – while the 3m euros will be used to finance the construction of a new railway line in The Hague. Turkish immigrants also have a great special weight.
After all this, anyone can draw their own conclusions about whether and to what end the six-month German presidency can be considered a success or a fiasco. Although much, of course, depends on the side one sees it from!
Source: news.in.gr
