Filenews 20 November 2020
The assessment that it is still too early to draw safe conclusions on the lifting of the measures currently in force, expressed today by the Head of the Advisory Scientific Committee Professor, Konstantinos Tsioutis, the Adviser of the Minister of Health and member of the EES, Zoe-Dorothea Pana and the Chairman of the Technical Committee for the Categorization of Countries and member of the EES, Giorgos Nikolopoulos.
Speaking during a press conference, Mr Tsiutis recalled that the measures now in place "are targeted and based on the data we have studied in the past few weeks". The situation throughout Cyprus, he said, "was and still seems to be, quite heavy and at the time the measures were taken it was very heavy especially in the two Provinces". Right now, he stressed, "it is difficult in a single week to draw safe conclusions in order to decide on a change or lifting of measures."
"What is needed is a good timetable and a gradual de-escalation of measures, if of course we safely find that we need to go to relaxation of the measures, because we cannot know what we will have ahead of us next week," he noted.
The measures taken 'were aimed at reducing contacts, reducing transmission between Provinces, especially from the very burdened Provinces to the rest, and also helped to strengthen laboratory tests either by rapid diagnostic tests or by molecular tests'. At the same time, he continued, "we aimed to protect the vulnerable and protect the health system."
For the movements between the Provinces and the exceptions given, Mr. Tsiotis said that "movements must be made when they are absolutely necessary. This means that in addition to the control that each citizen is subjected to in order to move, he must also assess whether he should move and when he moves, he must be very careful in his movements."
Mr. Tsioutis made particular reference to the workplaces, since, as he pointed out, "unfortunately we continue to see cases in the workplace and especially in the Provinces that have a less burdened image. It is therefore necessary to comply more strictly with the measures and protocols concerned'.
In addition, "from what we have observed, people with symptoms should not go to work until they contact their Personal Physician and receive instructions. I say this because we continue to see people with symptoms go to work."
For rapid tests, Mr. Tsioutis said that "in the first instance, they are used to control the population and will slowly come in to control specific groups, structures of increased risk. Now, the programmes take the form of general control to reflect the situation, to identify people in a timely manner who are positive and need to be restricted. There is a clear process and Cyprus is one of the few countries that then confirms the results of these tests and with molecular examination."
Finally, 'for hospitals to remind you that there is an action plan. The aim is to provide care, but also to protect the functioning of hospitals, because the more the beds are burdened, the more difficult it will be to operate other departments. So far we've seen a solid picture in the hospitalizations. But it is too early, I repeat, to draw safe conclusions about both hospitalizations and ICU."
Different contagion index in the Provinces
For his part, Professor George Nikolopoulos presented the results of the updated national report on the pandemic, which covers the period up to and including 16 November.
"We notice that the wave of this second phase of the pandemic is great. We seem to have reached a peak, but we are still at high levels. The average seven days of the epidemic curve seems to be starting to move somewhat downwards,' he explained.
However, "and we have explained that over 150 cases per 100,000 population define an area burdened, we see that this index continues to move high, but perhaps the rate it shows is somewhat lower".
The distribution of new cases of coronavirus, based on age, "shows us 36 years". 15% are young people and 15% are people over 60 years of age. "What happens to the group of people over the age of 60 is of particular concern to us. There was an increase, now it seems to be stabilizing somewhat."
Regarding the epidemiological picture presented by the various Provinces, Mr Nikolopoulos said that "in Paphos there is clearly a decrease in the epidemiological curve, little improvement shows Limassol and the other Provinces seem to have a burden at the moment. But we cannot get a full picture, we have to wait to have this week's data to get a clearer picture of the situation."
"The data at the moment shows us that there is a charge in Famagusta followed by Larnaca with Nicosia. There is an increasing trend but it is not sharp and this is encouraging", pointed out Mr Nikolopoulos.
Regarding the rate of hospitalization, Mr Nikolopoulos explained that "it has fallen to 6%". He added, at the same time, that "a second wave of imports has been created, we seem to have reached a high on average, nine imports a day. Now it's starting to come down a bit, but that doesn't mean anything, but we keep it on the positive side. His path from now on cannot be said."
On the deaths of patients with coronavirus, Mr Nikolopoulos said that "last week was the worst in the Republic of Cyprus". Nevertheless, "even now Cyprus maintains a good lead over other countries".
For the communicability index, Mr Nikolopoulos said that on a pancyprian scale it is below 1. However, it differs in the different Provinces. In Limassol it is close to 1, Paphos is moving very low, the other three provinces are between 1:1.1 and 1:1.2, i.e. it shows an increasing trend".
"In terms of forecasts for the next few days, we will continue to see triple-digit numbers and that could also mean a change in hospitalizations," Mr Nikolopoulos said.
Maybe in the first wave we only detected a third of the positive
In response to a question about the epidemic curve presented by Cyprus in the 1st and 2nd wave of the pandemic, Mr. Tsioutis said that "it is very likely that the height of the 1st wave, as depicted, does not reflect reality. Do not forget that our possibilities for controls at the time were somewhat limited."
Mr Nikolopoulos in turn said that "in the 1st pandemic wave obviously, because the possibilities for testing were limited, as we have seen on the basis of some models, it seems that we have diagnosed a third of the cases".
Asked about the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic, Mr. Tsioutis estimated that "if we manage to control in the coming weeks what is there now, there is a chance that we will see something like this again in January or February. Of course the readiness must be more increased, but it is not out of the question that we will have something else again in early 2021."
Adding to Mr Tsioutis' words, Mr Nikolopoulos said that "now we have the hopeful message about vaccines. But what I would say is that we now need to put more emphasis on the wave of hospitalizations than the wave of laboratory diagnoses, because in Cyprus laboratory diagnoses due to the volume, they had a problem in tracing and we probably missed some positive cases."
Premature to draw conclusions on lifting measures
Asked about the case of Paphos province, Mr. Tsiouts said that "in the decision to take measures, Paphos was busy with regard to epidemiological indicators and some other parameters. It was quite high and higher than the 150/100,000 ratio." Therefore, "precisely because of these observations, we felt that the measures should have been as strict in Paphos as in Limassol, where, of course, the indicators were much higher. Nevertheless, we saw a noticeable improvement in Paphos, we saw a percentage of rapid diagnosis quite low. It is still marginal and because it has only been a week it is not very safe to draw a conclusion and say that we are now going to lift measures."
"To be safer," he added, "we will wait another week, anyway we are approaching the timetable of 30 November and are already discussing what the course of the measures might be either more rigorously or more loosely depending on our conclusions", stressed Mr. Tsioutis.
For nicosia province, Mr Nikolopoulos responded by saying that "Nicosia, like Larnaca and Famagusta, is showing an increasing trend and with the data we have we find that fortunately we do not have a sharp increase, but it is gradual. From then on, when you study an epidemic, you see the individual. The analysis, which will also affect the interventions thereafter, will be early next week, so we can finish this week and see where it moved."
On the basis of the data that will emerge from the next
In response to questions about scientists' thoughts on whether or not to continue the measures and restrictions and after the expiry of the existing decrees on 30 November, Mr Tsioutis said that "we are working on a plan for what we will propose for 30 November. The horizon is to be able to be in good shape over the Christmas period, but to stress that we must not retain the impression that Christmas will be relaxed and without measures. It will be a period of extreme risk, especially in the matter of aggregations of the number of people, etc. It could be the starting point for a new wave this season. Certainly in our time horizon is to be in much better shape. All this depends on how far we are going to be able to keep to what is being implemented now. We, as a scientific committee, cannot rule anything out and we cannot see economic parameters and that is why decisions are taken by the Government. If there is a serious problem in Nicosia we do not rule anything out. I don't know if it would be possible to do that.'
"The universal prohibition is something that we know worked and will be an easy solution that will pay off," he said of Mr. Nikolopoulos, adding that "the difficult thing is to keep economic activity, social life and the epidemic in check at the same time."
In conclusion, Mr Nikolopoulos stressed that "it is not only the prohibitions and restrictions that are other measures that can help us such as the use of a mask. I've said it before, the mask can reduce deaths by 50%."
Increased cases in nursing homes and school units
Members of the Advisory Scientific Committee have described as worrying the fact that in recent days the number of cases in nursing homes and other similar structures has increased.
"What happens in nursing homes is serious, what can be done in a closed migrant structure, or in central prisons, is also very serious," Mr Nikolopoulos said, adding that "these structures are our priority and must be protected."
For her part, and in response to a question about the very large number of cases of workers and nursing home tenants in Kyperounta, the Press Officer of the Office of the Minister of Health, Mrs. Margarita Kyriakou, referred to the history of the audits from which the 33 incidents occurred. He said a laboratory check was carried out on 29 October on 500 residents in Kyperounta, including those living and working in the nursing home, with the results negative. Then, on November 15, a nursing home worker developed symptoms and was diagnosed positive for the virus. Through the tracing of her contacts from her workplace, 33 people tested positive for the virus, which she pointed out shows that there was a dispersion as a result of non-faithful adherence to the protocols.
'The dispersion shows that the procedures and protocols have not been precisely complied with. This suggests that some people may not yet understand that in these areas of work, there are people with a very high risk of severe disease, who may need hospitalization which will burden the Health System. It is typical that 16 people from various nursing homes are currently being treated at Famagusta Hospital because there has been transmission within these areas, because some have not noticed enough and have not complied with the protocols," said Ms Kyriakou.
Various measures have been taken, he continued, "visits have been banned with all that this entails for the psychology of people living there. They are elderly people who need to see their relatives, their children and their grand children. Visits have been banned, with the aim of not burdening them psychologically, but to limit the chances of people coming in from outside. Again we see transmission chains starting, with a large number of infections by people working in these areas. All these workers must realize that they have in their hands the lives of loved ones, the father and mother, the grandfather and grandmother of others, who, if they become seriously ill, will be hospitalized and some of them will end up."
She stressed that the behaviour and responsibility shown by each of us affects others, whether they are in the workplace or in our family. She referred to the programme carried out for the third time for the laboratory testing of workers in nursing homes, rehabilitation centres and other closed structures, as well as the rapid test to be carried out weekly on nursing home staff. "But if during the period between control and another, these individuals do not behave responsibly outside these areas, then it is very easy to infect, transfer the virus within these spaces and infect other people who are in vulnerable groups," stressed Ms Kyriakou. Finally, she noted that the various directives, protocols, incident management plan should be applied doubly carefully to these structures, "because we are dealing with the lives of other people who probably cannot protect them on their own".
With regard to the increased cases in Schools in Nicosia in recent times, Professor Zoe-Dorothea Pana reiterated that "schools follow the spread of the virus in the community, so we may then have chains within the school area". The challenge, she added, "is not to allow large chains within the school space, because it means that we allow the virus to enter the school space. Certainly lately we know that we also had chains in the Nicosia area so our strong request is strict adherence to the measures and protocols as well as a regular check within the school area".
Vaccines
Cyprus follows all the central procedures of the European Commission, which exist with regard initially to the part of the contracts, noted Dr Pana, in response to a question. "Our goal is to go through the safe route. Practically this means that of all the official contracts available, we will participate and try in our country to have all three vaccine technologies, which will be available from then on depending on the timetables that will depend and on the evaluations of the approved Agencies of the European Medicines Agency, we will have respectively of our population the quantities of vaccines at respectable intervals".
The timetables and forecasts given by the companies themselves will depend on the final assessment of effectiveness and safety that will be made centrally, she pointed out. Accordingly, she said, and with the hierarchy to be made for the population, vaccination will begin gradually. A plan has been drawn up and a hierarchy has been made for the groups of the population that will need to receive the vaccine first, Ms Pana noted, adding that those who will have priority are medical staff, people working in closed structures and dealing with vulnerable groups, while as far as vulnerable groups are concerned, the results of clinical studies are expected. In relation to the general population, it will be prioritized and organized according to clinical studies. "So far, data from clinical studies say they will not include in the initial phase of Phase 3 clinical studies a large number of children and young children," she explained.
Source: eyenews
