LOCKDOWN 'ROLLOVER' OF 50 DAYS ON AND 30 OFF UNTIL 2022 'IS WAY TO BEAT CORONAVIRUS'

Mirror 20 May 2020 - by Mark Waghorn and Shivali Best

A 'lockdown rollover' of 50 days on and 30 days off should be introduced...until 2022, say British scientists.

An alternating 80-day cycle will reduce the number of Covid-19 deaths and admissions to intensive care units, according to new research.

Month long intervals of relaxed social distancing would be followed by much more austere measures - lasting almost twice as long.

The strategy is based on mathematical formulas using data from 16 countries - and applies to the UK.

Lead author Dr Rajiv Chowdhury, of Cambridge University, said: "Although we did not model the situation in the UK, I would expect it to be very similar to that in other high income countries."

The study, published in the European Journal of Epidemiology, found it could save jobs - relieving financial insecurity and social disruption.

The successful "test-contact trace-isolate" system and shielding of the vulnerable would remain in place.

© Provided by Mirror A 'lockdown rollover' of 50 days on and 30 days off should be introduced...until 2022, say British scientistsHis international team believe the approach is more sustainable over the long term than current methods that minimise person-to-person transmission of the virus.

These include social distancing, isolating suspected infected individuals, school closures - and lockdowns.

Dr Chowdhury, a global health epidemiologist, said: "Our models predict dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation are effective at lowering the number of deaths significantly for all countries throughout the 18 month period.

"This intermittent combination of strict social distancing, and a relatively relaxed period, with efficient testing, case isolation, contact tracing and shielding the vulnerable, may allow populations and their national economies to 'breathe' at intervals - a potential that might make this solution more sustainable, especially in resource-poor regions."

© Getty Images The government previously wanted the whole of the UK to move as one - but that already isn't happening any more

Specific durations of the interventions would need to be defined by each country according to their needs and local facilities.

The key is to identify a pattern that protects the population from Covid-19 as well as economic hardship and mental health issues.

The virus has been detected in every country, with more than 4.6 million confirmed cases and a death toll of over 320,000 to date.

There is no effective treatment and a widely-available vaccine is likely to be at least a year away.

It has been unclear what the frequency and duration of such dynamic interventions should be and which strategy could be adapted globally.

© AFP via Getty Images A police officer stands near the stairs to the tube station at Oxford Circus in London

So the Global Dynamic Interventions Strategies for COVID-19 Collaborative Group modelled three scenarios across countries spanning Belgium to India.

They varied in setting and income and had diverse health and economic infrastructures.

The rolling cycle of a strict, 50-day lockdown followed by 30-days of easing reduce the R number, or reproductive rate of the virus, to 0.5 - well below 1 where cases rise exponentially.

It also kept ICU demand within national capacity. Since more individuals remain susceptible at the end of each cycle, the pandemic would last longer - beyond 18 months in all countries.