Based on the very good
epidemiological data of Cyprus and in an effort to reopen the country’s
borders
the Epidemiological Surveillance and Control Unit for Infectious
Diseases (ES&CUID) of the Ministry
of Health has carried out a risk assessment
of various countries regarding the COVID-19 disease. The assessment relied on
the most basic epidemiological indicators of countries, such as the effective
R(t) reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2, the number of new diagnosed outbreaks
and the number of
deaths per 100.000 inhabitants, the assessed prevalence and
impact and the classification by the World Health Organization (WHO), as
these indicators are presented in valid data bases. It should be noted
that
the reliability of these details is dependent on the policy of each country
as regards the laboratory
tests they carry out and the declaration of the
details to international sanitary authorities.
On the basis of this
assessment, ES&CUID has proceeded to a risk assessment and classification
of countries in the following two categories:
- A. Low-risk countries
In this category are classified
countries with effective (Rt) reproduction number less than 1 or/and
small
number of new diagnosed outbreaks (<1/100.000 inhabitants per day) or/and
low or very low mortality from COVID-19 (<5-10/100.000 inhabitants) or/and
classification of sporadic cases or
cluster cases according to the WHO or/and
minimum satisfactory laboratory testing (>3000 tests/
100.000 inhabitants):
Malta
Greece
Bulgaria
Norway
Austria
Finland
Slovenia
Hungary
Israel
Denmark
Germany
Slovakia
Lithuania
- B. Countries with
increased risk by comparison to those of category A
In this category are classified
countries with effective (Rt) reproduction number higher than 1 or/and number
of new diagnosed outbreaks >1/100.000 inhabitants per day or/and increased
mortality
COVID-19 (>10/100.000 inhabitants) or/and limited laboratory
testing (<2000 tests/1000.000
inhabitants) or lack of WHO classification:
Switzerland
Czech Republic
Poland
Romania
Croatia
Estonia
It should be noted that the
above evaluation, based on the epidemiological assessment of the countries,
is extremely dynamic and may be modified at any given moment, as the pandemic
is still evolving and
the epidemiological data are changing. For this reason,
the ES&CUID will be announcing an updated
list of countries at regular
intervals.
( DC )
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