Filenews 24 February 2023
By Bobby Ghosh
Looking back on the year since the Russian invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can glean satisfaction with his country's performance on two fronts. On the battlefields, in the east, his soldiers and generals have successfully resisted a larger, better-armed enemy. To his west, he has beaten his rival, Vladimir Putin, in the war of narratives.
Zelensky has kept the U.S. and Europe on Ukraine's side, which, in turn, has given his military the morale and weapons it needs to repel Russian aggression. His personal charisma and skilful diplomacy helped overcome the early reluctance of Americans and Europeans to confront Putin and extract increasingly powerful weapons from the arsenals of NATO member countries. The West's commitment to the Ukrainian cause was underlined this week by US President Joe Biden's visit to Kiev.
Vacuity
But as he looks ahead, towards the second year of the conflict, the Ukrainian leader will have to direct most of his actions to an apparent gap in his communications campaign: the Global South. In most of the developing world, Ukraine has not been able to question Russia's superiority in the war of narratives. Here, too, Kiev will need some Western help - but it also has some powerful weapons of its own.
In the first phase of the war, the Global South had no apparent place in Ukraine's priorities. Zelensky acknowledged that ensuring a steady flow of Western weapons and aid was absolutely critical to preventing his entire country from following the fate of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, when Putin took advantage of Ukraine's lack of U.S. and European support. In the spring of 2022, the attention and commitment of the West was existentially important for Ukraine.
But having broadly secured his country from the risk of annihilation and annexation to Russia, Zelensky will need the support of the World South to pressure Putin to end the war. When the time comes, Ukraine will also demand an international consensus to force Russia to pay reparations - and to account for the war crimes it has committed.
This fact hangs over the President of Ukraine and the government of the country. "There is a strong conscience in the Ukrainian leadership that the Global South is still a 'blind spot,'" says Fabrice Pothier, chief executive of political consulting firm Rasmussen Global, which has provided advisory services to the Ukrainian government. Addressing a joint session of the US Congress late last year, Zelensky described the conflict as "a battle for the minds of the world", while talking about the need to ensure victory not only on behalf of Ukraine, but also on behalf of the "countries of the Global South".
Lag
But to bring the developing world to his side, he will need more than high rhetorical prowess. As in the early days of the invasion, Ukrainians are severely deprived of the resources needed for a war of narratives. In principle, Kiev has only a fraction of Moscow's diplomatic means. "They're struggling to find the right channels," Pothier says. "They have, for example, only five ambassadors across the African continent. They cannot compete with Russia in this regard."
Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has neither the agenda nor the international recognition of the name of his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. Since the beginning of the war, Lavrov has flown across the developing world to sell the Russian narrative - and this when he does not welcome various foreign ministers from the World South to Moscow. Kuleba has not even remotely raised his miles in the air with regular trips at the same pace as his Russian counterpart, nor has his red carpet in Kiev been so worn down by foreign visitors.
The international trips of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Lavrov, from March 2022 to February 2023
In the West, Zelensky has covered his travel restrictions through videotaped speeches or videoconference messages, whether in the European Parliament, French parliamentarians and senators, or the World Economic Forum. This approach does not, however, work with sceptical audiences. When he spoke to the African Union last summer, only four of the 55 heads of state followed his message. Many more African leaders were eager to accommodate Lavrov, patiently listening to his propaganda about the Ukrainian (and Western) "subgenre".
Russia is not isolated
The developing world, for the most part, voted against Russia in the United Nations resolutions on the war. There were, however, important international players who remained neutral. A few days after the start of hostilities, 35 states - all from the Global South, which collectively accounted for almost half of the world's population - abstained from a vote condemning the Russian invasion. In October, the same number abstained from voting to condemn Moscow's annexation of parts of eastern Ukraine (in both cases, only five countries voted against the proposal).
It should be borne in mind that these were symbolic, non-binding votes. With regard to resolutions concerning practical measures, sympathy for Russia has been stronger. In April, 58 countries abstained and 24 voted against the proposal to suspend the Russian Federation's membership of the UN Human Rights Council because of its behaviour in Ukraine. And this happened just days after the world first saw the horrific images of killings and torture of civilians by Russian soldiers in Bucha, a few kilometres away from Kiev.
93 countries voted to expel Russia from the UN Human Rights Council
The vote was not enough to keep Moscow in the Council, but it cleared up the illusions that Putin was isolated and without friends. The deniers of Russia's condemnation and neutrals included the most prominent countries of the Global South: China, Ethiopia, Iran and Algeria were among those who voted against, while India, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria and South Africa abstained.
Memories
Several factors explain this deliberate ignorance of the events of the war. The leaders of many developing countries, especially in Africa, retain positive memories of Moscow's support during their struggle for freedom against Western colonial powers. Some have received more recent samples of Russian "galantomia". Still others are reluctant to lose long-term military ties with Moscow. Few of them opportunistically use war to extract oil and gas at reduced prices from Russia. And some take a "line" from China, Putin's main ally.
Overcoming this combination of causes will require different narratives than those that gave Zelensky so much appeal to the West. It is true that, as Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group recently noted, violations of national sovereignty are something that even autocracies do not like: 21 of the 55 states that Freedom House classifies as "non-free" support Ukraine. However, many countries in the Global South may not "buy" - or care - that allowing Putin to annex Ukraine would simply encourage him to demand more territory in Europe. Convincing developing countries that paying more for gas today will secure their future freedoms is a difficult task.
Zelensky, however, can tell another story, which will resonate in the Global South. Nations that have suffered colonial and imperial oppression can be convinced that Ukraine is now facing both of these phenomena.
"A Ukrainian narrative of a shared experience of colonialism and imperialism would be very strong in the Global South," says Gaspard Estrada, a political scientist at Sciences Po who specializes in Latin America. "Zelensky should also say: 'Like you, we reject the concept of spheres of influence.' This would be a particularly strong argument to the new left-wing leaders in Latin America, as it is also their motto."
Zelensky can also invoke Cold War-era ties. Rashid Abdi, a geopolitics analyst and fellow at the Rift Valley Institute, points out that many African leaders who maintain a sense of loyalty to the old USSR received training in then-Soviet Ukraine rather than Soviet Russia. "Ukraine has a greater relationship with Africa, more beneficial to Africans," he says. "It's also a more diversified relationship, it's not just about wheat supplies and fertilizers. Ukrainians were very generous with scholarships, and before the war there were tens of thousands of African students there."
Zelensky can also directly reach out to the peoples of the countries of the South, taking advantage of the pro-Ukrainian sentiment of ordinary people. "In public opinion, it is the Western perspective - that Russia is the invader - that dominates," says Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "This is revealed in articles, academic events and how the war is portrayed on television. There is admiration for Zelensky, even if he is not as intense as in the West."
Since he still has to spend time and energy to keep his Western benefactors by his side, the Ukrainian leader will need partners to help him get his message across to the developing world. Western leaders, given the complex history of their countries in the Global South, may not have the credibility to do so. But Zelensky should be able to recruit allies among leaders of countries on the periphery of Russia who are well aware of the consequences of Moscow's imperial ambitions.
The West also has a role to play: it can provide financial and diplomatic cover for any losses that developing countries may suffer if they come out of their neutrality and side with Ukraine. Favourable trade conditions, debt write-offs and new aid: the US and European countries know how to reward those who choose to be on the right side of history.
