Filenews 11 May 2022
By David Hambling
In Fidonisi, last weekend there were intense military operations: among other things, a bombardment by Ukrainian fighters and a barrage of strikes by Bayraktar TB2 drones, which resulted in the sinking of two patrol boats and a landing craft carrying ground-to-air missiles.
In addition, the Bayraktar TB2 overpowered a Mi-8 helicopter while carrying Russian soldiers to the island. However, Russia may be more concerned about a number seen in the video taken by one of the drones: an entry number indicating that it was a brand new drone found straight from the production line in Ukraine.
The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 is the most talked about drone of the time. Although the headline of the New Yorker magazine on Monday, "The Turkish drone that changed the nature of the war", provoked strong reactions, however, its previous successes in Libya, Syria and especially in Nagorno-Karabakh, where it dismantled hundreds of Armenian armoured vehicles, supplied to it by Russia, showed that Bayraktar could play an important role in Ukraine's defence. Many experts (including myself) doubted that Bayraktar could prevail over Russian air superiority and Moscow's ground-to-air missile systems. But it soon turned out that we were wrong: on 28 February, I was stressing that Russia's inability to block Bayraktar would signal bigger problems for its military machine.
Certainly, Russia abhors Turkish drones and "inflates" the number of Bayraktars it has shot down, and misrepresents the death toll by "teasing" images with destroyed drones that transform them into new ones.
But some Bayraktar are indeed being shot down, and Ukraine's original fleet of 36 drones is steadily dwindling, with at least seven casualties, according to Oryx's final account. Turkey continues to declare itself neutral in this conflict, as it is highly dependent on Russian gas and wheat, and has set itself as a mediator, while the government (unlike many other NATO member states) is not sending weapons to Ukraine. Ankara has declined to comment on whether it allows private arms sales to Ukraine. It was therefore concluded that no more Bayraktar would be delivered. Hence the US proposal to supply Ukraine with MQ-9 Reapers or other types of drones in order to strengthen its fleet.
But an analyst with his Twitter account @ameliaairheart reported the following interest about the hits on Fidonisi: Bayraktar's video feed, which is normally "cleaned up" to make digital identification information disappear, remained intact. This means that the attack was carried out by Ground Control Station 13, which was operating a Bayraktar with registration number T253.
The analyst then compared this entry with flight data from Turkey, which showed that the TB2 T253 performed a test flight south of the facilities from where Bayrakar's test flights are operated near Keşan, Turkey, on March 21st ─ just six weeks ago.
"This suggests that Ukraine takes the TB2 directly from the production line," the analyst concludes.
Another analyst, @Intelassess, says a Bayraktar with registration number T261 has also been identified in Ukraine and that the T258-T262 passed tests in Keşan. Drones are usually delivered in batches of six; this may mean that Ukraine may have received at least two such batches since the start of the war. Other analysts have identified recent drone flights that appear to be coming from the Baykar plant to Poland.
Of course, the data in the video may be false, or Ukraine may simply modify the registration numbers displayed in order to confuse Russia about how many Bayraktar it has left.
Even before the war, this was a sensitive issue for Turkey. In October 2021, Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu asked Ukraine not to refer to Turkey regarding imports of drones: "If a country has bought a weapon from us or from another country, then that weapon cannot be classified as Turkish or Russian or Ukrainian," he said.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Turkish Government has stated that the sales – before the war – to Ukraine were a private agreement and that Ankara had no involvement.
"These are private companies and purchases of drones that were made before the war," a high-ranking Turkish official told Reuters.
So far we have had no indications that Turkey has continued to supply Bayraktar to Ukraine. But if the newest analyses are correct, then Bayraktar sends new drones to Kiev, which it builds as quickly as it can, apparently with Ankara's tacit approval.
President Zelenskiy has stated that Bayraktar, in themselves, do not play a decisive role in the outcome of hostilities and that missiles and artillery are vital. However, drones are a major advantage when Fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force can make minimal exits per day.
If Ukraine has indeed received 12 – or more – drones, then it can now have more Bayraktar than when the fighting began. Now, Bayraktar are setting fire to oil depots in Russia, on the other side of the border, making history, as they are the first armed drones to sink military vessels, help sink the Russian Navy's flagship in the Black Sea, and destroy the air defence systems that were supposed to shoot them down.
It seems that Russia's problem with Bayraktar will get worse.
Source: Forbes
