WAITING FOR THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ - 15 DAYS ARE FEW - Filenews 9/4 by Gerasimos Serafimidis
The shipping market is taking a wait-and-see attitude regarding the ceasefire announced between the US and Iran, as it - even for the most optimistic - is quite fragile with the first cracks already appearing with Iran claiming to have closed the Strait of Hormuz again after Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
Xclusiv Shipbrokers analyst Dimitris Roumeliotis speaks to Capital about the deal and says that two weeks is a short period of time to bring about the changes one wants to see. He adds that this development will mainly affect the ships located in and around Hormuz, talking about 200 Bulkers and 200 tankers, while stressing that two weeks is not enough to have new charters. He also comments that the market has changed with several ships having turned to the Pacific and that the market is taking a wait-and-see attitude and that the situation remains fluid.
Another Shipbrokers company, which is Arrow, told TradeWinds that the truce is indeed fragile, but could boost the bulker market. Arrow analysts believe that the tankers will start leaving Hormuz first, followed by the 200 bulkers trapped in the Straits area. This will result in an increase in the capacity available for the transport of cargo, and this will also have an impact on freight rates. However, they also believe that the chromatic interval of 14 days is too short to see route changes and redesign of cargo flows.
SSY's Roar Adland said shipping should closely monitor the possibility of reducing war risk premiums as well as other insurance costs, as only in this way will the signal be given for the return of confidence in the safe passage of ships.
What remains to be seen is what the "limited number of daily crossings" announced by the Iranian side means. It is estimated that in the first phase, 10 to 15 ships per day will be allowed to pass through, i.e. at 10% of pre-war levels, which means that we are significantly away from returning to normality.
Regarding the rumoured $2 million toll imposed by Iran as war reparations on neutral countries' ships for safe passage, Mr. Sánchez said: Adland believes that this measure takes small tonnage ships out of the equation, especially those that do not carry energy products.
He adds that the release of tankers from west of Hormuz will help stabilize the prices of marine fuels and their supply, but there will be a big gap until the positive results are seen.
Regarding bulkers, he says that in the long run they will increase their profits, while commenting that there will be shipowners who will dare to send ships to Hormuz, as there will be strong financial incentives, mainly for energy commodities for shipowners who are willing to take the risk. However, two weeks are not enough to "whet the appetite" of shipowners to see the return of ships on a large scale.
He estimates that increased demand in the Middle East for commodity imports will create a supply cycle, while increasing military stocks will also be sought. Repairing damaged infrastructure will also play an important role in this demand.
On the other hand, the demand for bulkers is estimated to be negatively affected by damage to critical infrastructure, such as aluminium production plants, for which bauxite is a key raw material.
